Comments on: When gurus gather… http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/when-gurus-gather/ Helping you invest and prosper Fri, 19 Mar 2010 02:53:21 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: EconStudent http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/when-gurus-gather/#comment-188865 EconStudent Fri, 10 Apr 2009 17:29:11 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=2035#comment-188865 aloha e: A very nice link. I think Roubini really knows what he is talking about. I don't think Roubini deserves the title of Dr Doom at this point. Roubini says the recession will end in 2 or 3 years. That doesn't sound like a depression at all. Deflation with inflation afterwards sounds very reasonable too due to excess production capabilities as explained by Roubini. Roubini's sound understanding and combining both Neo-Classical and Neo-Keynesian economics is very impressive. aloha e: A very nice link. I think Roubini really knows what he is talking about. I don’t think Roubini deserves the title of Dr Doom at this point. Roubini says the recession will end in 2 or 3 years. That doesn’t sound like a depression at all. Deflation with inflation afterwards sounds very reasonable too due to excess production capabilities as explained by Roubini. Roubini’s sound understanding and combining both Neo-Classical and Neo-Keynesian economics is very impressive.

]]> By: aloha e http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/when-gurus-gather/#comment-188862 aloha e Fri, 10 Apr 2009 16:59:03 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=2035#comment-188862 For anyone who doubts Nouriel Roubini's predictions, read his Feb 5, 2008 article on the 12 steps to financial disaster. For context, the Dow was at 12,700 at that point, so these predictions were laughed off as fantasy. Of course i don't have to tell you they all came true. http://media.rgemonitor.com/papers/0/12_steps_NR For anyone who doubts Nouriel Roubini’s predictions, read his Feb 5, 2008 article on the 12 steps to financial disaster. For context, the Dow was at 12,700 at that point, so these predictions were laughed off as fantasy. Of course i don’t have to tell you they all came true.

http://media.rgemonitor.com/papers/0/12_steps_NR

]]> By: Canadian Capitalist http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/when-gurus-gather/#comment-188855 Canadian Capitalist Fri, 10 Apr 2009 15:26:36 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=2035#comment-188855 Jeremy Grantham is a genuine guru in my book. He publishes expected returns for various asset classes regularly and explains why he is bullish or bearish based on expected returns (and admits it is somewhat of a guesswork because of potential changes in valuation, which is inherently unpredictable). I always found his essays interesting and well reasoned. Jeremy Grantham is a genuine guru in my book. He publishes expected returns for various asset classes regularly and explains why he is bullish or bearish based on expected returns (and admits it is somewhat of a guesswork because of potential changes in valuation, which is inherently unpredictable). I always found his essays interesting and well reasoned.

]]> By: Dividend Growth Investor http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/when-gurus-gather/#comment-188851 Dividend Growth Investor Fri, 10 Apr 2009 15:05:22 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=2035#comment-188851 As for me I predicted 9 out of the 5 bear markets :-) As for me I predicted 9 out of the 5 bear markets :-)

]]> By: EconStudent http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/when-gurus-gather/#comment-188846 EconStudent Fri, 10 Apr 2009 13:56:25 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=2035#comment-188846 How about Jeremy Grantham? Is he just a guru of the day or someone who has been really good at analyzing and forecasting the market? His timing isn't exactly the most precise. He called the Nikkei Bubble 3 years early, Nasdaq bubble 2 years early, and Financial Crisis of 2008 2 years early, but he made the right calls. He told people to invest in emerging markets and oil in the year 2000. What do you guys think? How about Jeremy Grantham? Is he just a guru of the day or someone who has been really good at analyzing and forecasting the market?

His timing isn’t exactly the most precise. He called the Nikkei Bubble 3 years early, Nasdaq bubble 2 years early, and Financial Crisis of 2008 2 years early, but he made the right calls. He told people to invest in emerging markets and oil in the year 2000. What do you guys think?

]]> By: CanadianInvestor http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/when-gurus-gather/#comment-188734 CanadianInvestor Thu, 09 Apr 2009 23:26:00 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=2035#comment-188734 A key question is, to coin a phrase, "where are the bears yachts?" and if they have yachts, how did they get them - by selling their advice and/or books, or by investing their own money? A key question is, to coin a phrase, “where are the bears yachts?” and if they have yachts, how did they get them – by selling their advice and/or books, or by investing their own money?

]]> By: sodium http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/when-gurus-gather/#comment-188729 sodium Thu, 09 Apr 2009 22:06:40 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=2035#comment-188729 Nobody ever became famous by predicting an average year and being right. Nobody ever became famous by predicting an average year and being right.

]]> By: Thicken My Wallet http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/when-gurus-gather/#comment-188713 Thicken My Wallet Thu, 09 Apr 2009 18:23:50 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=2035#comment-188713 Even a wrong clock is right twice a day... If I am a forecaster and keep saying things are going to be great or bad consistently, at some point in the economic cycle, I will be right. Then I can declare myself an "expert." Wouldn't a better gathering be to have 2 bears and 2 bulls battling it out rather than gather people who think exactly like you do? That's not a forum, that is a back-patting session. I am not remotely going to forecast anything. I don't pretend to know the fates and anyone who says they do is a fool. Even a wrong clock is right twice a day…

If I am a forecaster and keep saying things are going to be great or bad consistently, at some point in the economic cycle, I will be right. Then I can declare myself an “expert.”

Wouldn’t a better gathering be to have 2 bears and 2 bulls battling it out rather than gather people who think exactly like you do? That’s not a forum, that is a back-patting session.

I am not remotely going to forecast anything. I don’t pretend to know the fates and anyone who says they do is a fool.

]]> By: Aleks http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/when-gurus-gather/#comment-188710 Aleks Thu, 09 Apr 2009 17:56:38 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=2035#comment-188710 "<i>I would side with the bears. We had a huge market crash, and we’re in a deep world-wide recession (Iceland collapsed, Easter Europe and other emerging markets could follow), the financial sector is in shambles. In spite of the trillions in stimulus, we’re still in danger of deflation. Dr. Doom’s prediction of a recession lasting 24-36mo isn’t unreasonable given these facts.</i>" I tend to agree with Roubini, just because I don't seen any reason for a turnaround at this point. However, when you say you "side with the bears" that includes the guy predicting the Dow at 1000. I really don't see it going that low. In fact, the bottom may have already been hit. I think we can have a long, L-shaped recession without an economic apocalypse. “I would side with the bears. We had a huge market crash, and we’re in a deep world-wide recession (Iceland collapsed, Easter Europe and other emerging markets could follow), the financial sector is in shambles. In spite of the trillions in stimulus, we’re still in danger of deflation. Dr. Doom’s prediction of a recession lasting 24-36mo isn’t unreasonable given these facts.”

I tend to agree with Roubini, just because I don’t seen any reason for a turnaround at this point. However, when you say you “side with the bears” that includes the guy predicting the Dow at 1000. I really don’t see it going that low. In fact, the bottom may have already been hit. I think we can have a long, L-shaped recession without an economic apocalypse.

]]> By: Dividend Growth Investor http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/when-gurus-gather/#comment-188708 Dividend Growth Investor Thu, 09 Apr 2009 17:40:32 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=2035#comment-188708 In hindsight Gazarelli was correct to issue a sell n 1996. If you bought bonds instead you would have missed some upside in stocks, but you would not have experienced either the dot com bust and the mortgage bust as well.. Now that's what I call long-term investing :-) In hindsight Gazarelli was correct to issue a sell n 1996. If you bought bonds instead you would have missed some upside in stocks, but you would not have experienced either the dot com bust and the mortgage bust as well..

Now that’s what I call long-term investing :-)

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