Comments on: When gurus gather…

By: This and That: Market Rally & UFile Giveaway | MoneySense

This and That: Market Rally & UFile Giveaway | MoneySense — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 14:35:24 +0000

[...] two years ago, the pundits getting the most air time were those making dire forecasts (here’s one example). Investors who listened to these gurus and hid under their beds missed out on one of the most [...]

By: This and That: Market Rally & UFile Giveaway | Canadian Capitalist

This and That: Market Rally & UFile Giveaway | Canadian Capitalist — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 03:55:48 +0000

By: EconStudent

EconStudent — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 17:29:11 +0000

aloha e: A very nice link. I think Roubini really knows what he is talking about. I don’t think Roubini deserves the title of Dr Doom at this point. Roubini says the recession will end in 2 or 3 years. That doesn’t sound like a depression at all. Deflation with inflation afterwards sounds very reasonable too due to excess production capabilities as explained by Roubini. Roubini’s sound understanding and combining both Neo-Classical and Neo-Keynesian economics is very impressive.

By: aloha e

aloha e — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 16:59:03 +0000

For anyone who doubts Nouriel Roubini’s predictions, read his Feb 5, 2008 article on the 12 steps to financial disaster. For context, the Dow was at 12,700 at that point, so these predictions were laughed off as fantasy. Of course i don’t have to tell you they all came true.

http://media.rgemonitor.com/papers/0/12_steps_NR

By: Canadian Capitalist

Canadian Capitalist — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 15:26:36 +0000

Jeremy Grantham is a genuine guru in my book. He publishes expected returns for various asset classes regularly and explains why he is bullish or bearish based on expected returns (and admits it is somewhat of a guesswork because of potential changes in valuation, which is inherently unpredictable). I always found his essays interesting and well reasoned.

By: Dividend Growth Investor

Dividend Growth Investor — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 15:05:22 +0000

As for me I predicted 9 out of the 5 bear markets

By: EconStudent

EconStudent — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 13:56:25 +0000

How about Jeremy Grantham? Is he just a guru of the day or someone who has been really good at analyzing and forecasting the market?

His timing isn’t exactly the most precise. He called the Nikkei Bubble 3 years early, Nasdaq bubble 2 years early, and Financial Crisis of 2008 2 years early, but he made the right calls. He told people to invest in emerging markets and oil in the year 2000. What do you guys think?

By: CanadianInvestor

CanadianInvestor — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 23:26:00 +0000

A key question is, to coin a phrase, “where are the bears yachts?” and if they have yachts, how did they get them – by selling their advice and/or books, or by investing their own money?

By: sodium

sodium — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 22:06:40 +0000

Nobody ever became famous by predicting an average year and being right.

By: Thicken My Wallet

Thicken My Wallet — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 18:23:50 +0000

Even a wrong clock is right twice a day…

If I am a forecaster and keep saying things are going to be great or bad consistently, at some point in the economic cycle, I will be right. Then I can declare myself an “expert.”

Wouldn’t a better gathering be to have 2 bears and 2 bulls battling it out rather than gather people who think exactly like you do? That’s not a forum, that is a back-patting session.

I am not remotely going to forecast anything. I don’t pretend to know the fates and anyone who says they do is a fool.