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moneysense.ca, 15/09/08
Ugly Day in the Markets
Unlike last week’s market dive in Toronto, today’s mayhem was worldwide: the S&P 500 closed down 4.7%, the TSX Composite was off 4.1%, other developed markets (using VEA as a proxy) were down 4.35% and emerging markets (using VWO as a proxy) were down 7% (making me wish I’d held off on writing this post and wait a few weeks before adding to my VWO holdings). The few bright spots were bonds (investors were presumably searching for shelter after the storm hit) and Canadian REITs (which has a slightly down day).
The ideal course of action would be to do nothing, provided you have a well-diversified portfolio designed to get through rough patches. The brave ones might want to rebalance if the allocations have deviated significantly from their targets. You may also want to note down your reaction to falling prices and use it as a guide in the future to tweak your asset allocation.
As equity investors we must inevitably endure ugly days and remind ourselves (ironically, Jason Zweig writes that individual investors are stoic about the market decline; it’s the “professionals” who are panicking) that the higher returns from equities come from bearing the risk of holding stocks through times such as this. It is easier said than done as it’s no fun watching your portfolio dive more than 4% in a single day. Still, as a net buyer of stocks for the foreseeable future, lower stock prices allow us to buy assets at a cheaper price. That’s the silver lining on an ugly day such as today.
moneysense.ca, 15/09/08









This year has been a good gut check for me and my strategy. My reaction has so far been to wish I had a new lump of cash to buy more everything. I do feel like I’ve been hit but my reaction is to hit back, not turn and run.
I spent last evening calculating how much RRSP room I’ve got left for 2008 accounting for payroll contributions through Feb 2009, mailed a check for 1/4 of that amount to the investment house, and am keeping a blank cheque at work ready to post at a moment’s notice should the market take another dive.
Thanks for the reminder to check the allocations.
I’m a little leary of Jason Zweig’s article. While what he says makes sense, there is an alternate interpretation. This could be an attempt to get the stoic small investor to hang in and be the ‘bag holder’ while the panicy big guys bail on a market heading even further into the dumps.
Solid post – I think the market volatility that have been witnessing makes it even more important for us, as equity investors, to hold on and play it out. Not letting yourself panic and go on a major dumping spree is key in my personal opinion.
Sweet. Being a young guy (21) that is about to inherit a great deal of money, I can only hope that the markets stay depressed until I can get as much in sheltered accounts as possible. I’ve also got my fingers crossed that the housing market will go down 20% in Winnipeg as some are predicting.
One reason that “professionals” are more prone to panic in such a market is because their job’s on the line — if their fund underperform too much, they might lose their job.
I’m averaging down – selling whatever is in a “positive” territory yet, and loading up on the equities that have taken the biggest hit so far.
Currently, I’m down to 14 stocks as opposed to the previous 22 holdings. Only the time will tell if I’m onto something here..8)
Wow, do you guys actually read the news, or do you just sit in a room together holding each other’s hands as the floor falls from underneath you?
Maybe open up your copy of the Financial Post today and realize this isn’t just another short lived bear market, front page news from respected newspapers are comparing the carnage to the 1929 great depression, and saying that this RIVALs even that!
http://www.financialpost.com/news/story.html?id=792437
Good luck with your averaging down… you’ll be averaging down to zero in no time.
Averaging down to zero is no sweat if you’re a long-term investor. The people who are in big trouble now are short-term investors who need the money today or in a few years’ time. But for me, the value of my RRSP could go right down to zero and I wouldn’t bat an eye, as the market has about 15 years to recover before I hit retirement age. I still own the shares, it’s not their value now that matters to me; it’s their value when I get closer to needing that money.
Denial: Market swoons like the current one are inevitable. I wish I know when it will end but nobody does. The best you can do provided (a) you have a well-diversified portfolio and (b) you rebalance occasionally is to hang tough because you expected times like this (just didn’t know when or why) and your portfolio is built to weather these storms. IMHO, panicking and selling is the absolute wrong thing to do (note that I’m talking about asset classes, not individual stocks).
the value of my RRSP could go right down to zero and I wouldn’t bat an eye
Brad, even though I agree with you – that would cause me to bat an eye (or 2).
I am relatively new to stock investing. I enjoy reading this blog. I started investing a very small amount a year ago and right now I am at no profit no loss.
I love these ugly days because it gives me opportunity for bargains. I feel the markets are yet to bottom out when people start losing jobs. So I am waiting with a large chunk of cash.
Investors should be doing a little math and considering purchase of doubleshort ETFs instead of selling long positions. In a trading account I’ve done well buying small doubleshort positions on rally days, and have been gradually selling them into this mess for gains while my core portfolio is melting. We’re lucky to have some pretty good (i.e. fairly reliable index tracking) doubleshorts in Canada. I’ve just sold HOD for a nice gain on declining crude oil. I’ve added some HXD (double inverse the TSX) because I think Canada has been the last in (on commodity strength) – hopefully it will be first out (for the same reason) – of this mess.
I sense panic.. I think we might have hit another short term bottom today ( but don’t hold on to that). If we fall below today’s panic low we might really go lower this year.
Anyways I like dollar cost averaging the same amount of money every 2 weeks and getting more stock for my buck..
I congratulate my lucky star for locking the main part of my RRSP in Dec in a 4.10% 3 year GIC (that part that I invested beforehand without any financial knowledge)… looks like it wasn’t a bad idea. As a romanian proverb goes, it’s okay to be ignorant, if you’re lucky.
You say:
“The best you can do provided (a) you have a well-diversified portfolio and (b) you rebalance occasionally is to hang tough.”
This is a theme which I see throughout many of your posts, even being a bit derogatory about people who do not do this…..
I would like to suggest that there no absolutes in investing, just many different approaches, and yours is one. It is not the best, and not the worst.
Also investing approaches depend on a person’s amount of time available, the amount of money available, the risk tolerance, etc.
My Canadian and US timers have kept me out of the markets. Yawn.
jack: I readily admit to many roads to Jerusalem as long as a set of rules are strictly followed (don’t trade too much, don’t chase performance, pay attention to costs & taxes etc.). I don’t see how panicking about the market is the right thing.
“… a bit derogatory…”
I’ve been passionate about my views but I don’t cross the line into (at least, I don’t think I have) personal attacks.
Dear CC:
“ Anyone who bought stocks in mid-1929 and held onto them saw most of his or her adult life pass by before getting back to even. ” (That was in 1954).
—Richard M. Salsman[6]
PS Dear CC:
By “… a bit derogatory…” I didn’t mean you attacked anyone personally.
Salsman’s quote is valid, if you plan on buying stock once every 25 years. If you do that, you may very well end up in the situation described in that quote. That is not what this blog is about. This blog is about consistent, methodical approach to investing. I will shut up now and let CC and Jack sort thing out themselves
For those of you who are averaging down, I suggest you wait a little longer. After the close, the news headlines have indicated that the largest insurance company in the USA, AIG, is filing for bankruptcy. The reason why they went bankrupt? Because they’re on the hook for insuring all kinds of complicated financial products. Poof! $180 Billion of assets disappear tonight!
While it’s nice to see the Greenberg family lose their stranglehold on the North American insurance industry… I admit that it will be catastrophic to the economy. I look forward to someone else taking over the insurance market once the Greenbergs are in the poorhouse. Well, ok, they won’t be in the poor house, they’ll still be worth hundreds of millions of dollars, but at least they won’t have a near monopoly in the insurance industry anymore.
Personally, I still don’t think we’ve “hit bottom” yet. The last time I heard, Citigroup, the USA’s largest bank, has a negative asset value and is eventually going to explode along with all of these other banks. And they’re worth what? $3 Trillion dollars? Poof! More imminently, I think Washington Mutual is on the verge of collapse. I think we’re going to see a run on the banks like we’ve never seen before in the USA, which as we all know, is Canada’s largest trading partner, accounting for 80% of our exports.
What do you think is going to happen in Canada when they stop importing goods? It’s like taking an 80% cut in pay, but we’re talking about all of Canada. Welcome to the next economic depression! Dirty 30′s here we come again.
jack: I’d submit that the assumptions are a bit unrealistic because (a) a portfolio is assumed to be composed entirely of stocks, (b) dividends are completely ignored, (c) no additions are made to the portfolio.
Even if you simply assume reinvested dividends, real US equity returns from 1930 to 1939 was 1.9% (it was a deflationary period and inflation was -2% during that decade). Real returns were 2.9% in the two decades starting in 1930.
What if an investor had put money regularly instead? In The Intelligent Investor, Jason Zweig has this example:
“if you had invested $12,000 in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index at the beginning of September 1929, 10 years later you would have had only $7,223 left. But if you had started with a paltry $100 and simply invested another $100 every single month, then by August 1939, your money would have grown to $15,571!”
Now, it would be certainly be very profitable if we can completely avoid market swoons. Unfortunately, there is no reliable way of doing that.
The problem is that the 20th century’s story is the rise of the USA.
If you’d bought “Roman” stocks anytime in the years 0 to 400 A.D. you’d have done well. But if you’d bought them in the year 500 A.D. then … Ooops! You’re buying into a declining empire.
What if the 21st century is the story of the (relative) rise of Asia and stagnation of the USA?
Phil: The AIG news is simply stunning… Good thing I don’t own it anymore. Can’t believe I dodged two bullets (AIG and E*Trade) in one year.
If you’re worried about the markets, just buy the indices, or buy franchises that are pretty recession proof…you’ll still be buying Coca-Cola, JNJ and Pepsi products…they should do well…the world isn’t coming to an end…Also, people should really take the same road as the financial stocks: if you’re not comfortable with your debt levels, start de-leveraging…pay down debts…You make money by saving interest (opportunity costs)…
Market crashes are awesome, there’s nothing better than buying a great business at a great price.
Ok, before I get started, I just wanted to actually say thank you first for providing this blog. Before the whole markets started crashing, I think I actually learned a thing or two from your blog and I believe that in general your approach to investment _made_ sense (emphasis on past tense). The problem is that the markets have done a 180 (from bull to bear), and then a 90 turn from there (from high energy to low energy), and now are going in two directions at once (down in EVERY asset class, and down in traditional hedges against deflation (i.e. gold)) and in short, is very unpredictable in the long term though in the short term one can almost say the opposite with some new bank/investment firm/insurance firm on the brink of collapse every couple of days.
And now for some other commentary:
1) “If you’re worried about the markets, just buy the indices” – Are you serious? ALL indexes are trending down in ALL countries. Please point me to one that you think will rise against the massive downward spiral we are in.
2) Averaging down in an 18 month long bear market that is poised to last another 1 to 1.5 years, is nonsensicle advise. If this were a short lived 6 month or so bear market, I’d be ok with that kind of advice, but this is a massive downward spiral that just picked up significant acceleration in the past few weeks, and unless you want to go down the drain, you’re better to just drop your monthly $100 investment pennies into a GIC/T-bills/Cash, until there’s a light at the end of the tunnel – that’s not an oncoming TRAIN!
3) Want to really know WTF is going on out there? Here’s a few links that will take some of the guess work out:
1) Mish’s blog: Updated daily, often 2 or 3 times. Outstanding quality content that quotes respected sources (i.e. bloomberg, NYTimes, etc) and offers counter-spin backed up by significant research, and more importantly a great track record of being right – even if it means questioning the statements of other bears in this bear market. http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
2) Charlie Rose – High quality interviews with some of the best financial experts out there. Tough questions, expert panalists that tell it like it is without bias. Sample (skip to about 13:40): http://www.charlierose.com/shows/2008/9/15/1/a-discussion-about-the-crisis-on-wall-street
3) Financial Post – Thank god we still have a newspaper that tells it like it is in Canada and which does not see the world through rose colored glasses like just about every local newspaper. Read daily, refresh 2 or 3 times a day for new content. http://www.financialpost.com/index.html
4) Globe and Mail – A great start, if you’re new, but be sure to read other sources too. http://www.financialpost.com/index.html
5) Bloomberg.com – Excellent for all the latest big headlines, and several bonus points for providing a FREE 24/7 streaming TV over the web. The streaming video quality isn’t great, but it’s great that the content is decent and that it’s free and that’s good enough for me.
6) itulip.com – Not 100% free, but I check it a few times a week as there’s always some interesting little video clip that captures the sense of what is going on. The editors have an exceptional track record of being right, WAY ahead of their time. The forums are decent quality with several regular posters that actually do in depth studies of the market and share their analysis. Overall, I’m a ‘buyer’ of their “Ka-Poom theory”.
7) Crash Course – The best 2-3 hours of FREE training videos about how the market really works that you will ever watch for free on the web. If you are new, this is the number 1 starting point. Believe me, your time is well spent here. This site really opened my eyes to certain market factors that I assumed worked differently.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/three_beliefs (video#1 of 20)
Bookmark these, and visit them frequently.
Denial, nobody knows what the future will bring; a lot of people think they know but the fact is it’s anyone’s guess. A lot of people also think they understand the market and how it will behave. But if the market were perfectly understandable and predictable, we’d all be zillionaires.
Any investment carries risk. Putting your money into guaranteed investments ensures that you won’t lose what you put in, but in the long term it also makes it likely that inflation will overtake whatever growth you achieve, leaving you with what you put in and no more (in terms of buying power). If you’re a big saver today and can live frugally in retirement, that might work for you. Those of us investing in the market take the risk that we might lose it all (losing it all today is no problem as long as the markets recover and grow before we hit retirement); we feel that the risk is worth taking because the potential for beating inflation and achieving significant growth is higher.
The world is a very different place than it was in 1929, and while I have no doubt we’re headed for some very rough sailing I also have little doubt that the markets will eventually recover. The key questions are “how long will it take” and “at what level will they recover to.” Nobody knows the answers. In light of that uncertainty, I think it makes sense to keep buying shares at bargain prices while the market is down. So what if you put in $1000 this week and it’s worth $500 next week? You’re not “losing money,” you’re amassing shares in the expectation that a few decades from now those shares will be worth more than they are now. What they’re worth today doesn’t matter at all.
Wow, my 3-line post on my averaging down strategy has surely attracted a lot of condemnation..8))
So, here’s a disclaimer – this is not an investment advice, just my personal preference. Please, don’t follow me down my slippery slope!
Though, as I’m typing this, my portfolio is currently up 1% while the TSX is down almost 4% ..But like I said, my post was never meant to be an advice of any kind, and I absolutely mean it..
Denial: I guess you favour market timing — moving between cash and stocks depending on market/economic conditions. I can only wish you luck because there is no evidence that market timing works. In fact, there is plenty of evidence that investors (professional or retail) do precisely the wrong thing at the wrong time (unfortunately, this is evident only in retrospect).
I wish I had a dime for every suggestion for adjusting the strategy I’ve had over the years. A few months back, it was buy gold because inflation was going to skyrocket. Today, it is “oh my god! It’s a depression! It’s worse than 1929″, which by the way, is what they said about 1987.
Canadian Capitalist, you might want to look up the word “derivatives” and google “quadrillion”, next read this …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xV7E_tzxdNs
…entire article about Canadian banks barely dodging an $800 BILLION nuclear warhead, and how 3 month US treasury bills are effectively WORTHLESS as of today.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/09/3-month-treasury-yields-effectively-hit.html
Where you gonna put your money now?
I’ll give you two ideas:
1) Physical Gold
2) Shorting just about any large US financial institution.
PS. I bought physical gold Sept 15th equivalent to 20% of my total networth. I’m not a genius, but at least I pay attention to what people smarter than me are saying. I would definitely consider you more experienced and knowledgeable in the market and economics than me; however, I also consider your approach significantly risky.
Good luck!
Denial – having a 20% allocation to a single commodity such as gold, AFTER it has appreciated in price because of investor’s FEAR is the truly risky strategy. I sincerely hope your timing is spot on, else your losses on that holding could be considerable. (Market timing is, in my humble opinion, another very risky strategy)
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