Even thought the underwriter is RBC will I sitll be able to buy the stock through TD Waterhouse?

Canadians thirsting for a taste of the upcoming Tim Hortons initial public offering could have difficulty getting their paws on the much-vaunted trust units — at least while they are still piping hot.

U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs is managing the deal, along with RBC Capital Markets, and observers say American investors are poised to get the first crack at the IPO which is brewing interest on both sides of the border.

“In the initial go around, I would imagine that the majority of the shares will end up in the hands of U.S. investors simply because the U.S. dealer is the lead underwriter on this,” said Fred Ketchen, manager of equity trading at Scotia Capital.

“It would make it just so much easier, you know, if we could drive up to the takeout window and have a double-double and a hundred shares.”

Affectionately dubbed “Tims” by java junkies across Canada, the iconic coffee shops are the country’s largest fast-food chain, based on sales and number of restaurants.

Its American parent, Wendy’s International Inc. (NYSE: WEN), has now decided to bump up the timeline for a complete multi-billion-dollar spinoff of the storied coffee and doughnut chain — namesake of former Toronto Maple Leafs’ defenceman Tim Horton.

Wendy’s plans a late March initial public offering of an 18 per cent chunk of Tim Hortons on the Toronto and New York stock exchanges. That first tranche will be worth an estimated $600 million US, but the planned IPO values the entire chain at about $4 billion US.

Wendy’s then plans to spin off the rest of Tim Hortons within nine to 18 months by giving its shareholders new stock that represents the remaining stake in the division.

Industry observers say the Tim Hortons shares could be worth between $29 and $36 each.

“This is going to be a hot issue,” Ketchen said of the IPO. “Chances are that it will be well over-subscribed.”

That means Canadians who are not already active traders could be out of luck — at least initially.

Experts say units will eventually filter down to average Canadians, but likely at a higher price, and only after being widely circulated on financial markets.

Here’s why: In general, investment banks that underwrite IPOs each get a certain portion of the shares and allot them to their clients, both individual and institutional buyers.

Some of those investors will be Canadians, but ordinary folks looking to buy units on the TSX down the road need to open an account with a broker.

There is, however, another way for Joe Canuck to get in on the action. “You could go and buy some Wendy’s shares (on the New York Stock Exchange),” Ketchen said.

That would allow Canadian investors to eventually access Tim Hortons shares when Wendy’s does the special Tim Hortons stock dividend during the second part of the spinoff.

“The only difficulty with that is that there are those about who are suggesting that at its current price ($57 US) . . . perhaps the stock is a little overpriced,” Ketchen said. “Is it worth buying Wendy’s at this price to get a spinoff of Tim Hortons?”

That’s because Tim Hortons has been largely credited for propping up its U.S. parent.

Earlier this month, Wendy’s said preliminary same-store sales at Tim Hortons for the fourth-quarter, ended Jan. 1, were up 5.8 per cent at restaurants in Canada and 6.7 per cent in the United States.

Wendy’s-only restaurant sales, by contrast, decreased 2.9 per cent at U.S. company stores and 1.9 per cent at U.S. franchised restaurants.

Tim Hortons, based in Oakville, Ont., has about 2,800 restaurants but does the lionshare of its business in Canada. American burger giant Wendy’s, based in Dublin, Ohio, scooped up Tim Hortons in 1995 but Canadians continue to fondly regard it as a slice of Canadiana.

“I think that Canadians are much more appreciative of Tim Hortons than the U.S.,” commented John Kinsey, a portfolio manager with Caldwell Securities.

“What I would envisage is a gradual shift in ownership from the U.S. to Canada.”

Happy Investing.