Comments on: The travails of Bill Miller http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/the-travails-of-bill-miller/ Helping you invest and prosper Sun, 12 Feb 2012 00:54:40 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Dividend Growth Investor http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/the-travails-of-bill-miller/#comment-156015 Dividend Growth Investor Tue, 16 Sep 2008 18:09:17 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=1276#comment-156015 First of all the problem with most stock picking strategies is that they have glory days and they have horrible days. The tough part is sticking to your guns and not panicking when the going gets tough. Second of all, Bill Millers fund might have simply been lucky over the past 15 years. It's not unheard of. The market has been generally trending up for that period of time ( except 2000-2002) so buying stocks that don't perform well worked pretty good. Untill most such stocks happened to fail in the same year, at the same time.. ouch.. In conclusion I believe that one has to not only be diversified across asset classes but also across multiple strategies. First of all the problem with most stock picking strategies is that they have glory days and they have horrible days. The tough part is sticking to your guns and not panicking when the going gets tough.

Second of all, Bill Millers fund might have simply been lucky over the past 15 years. It’s not unheard of. The market has been generally trending up for that period of time ( except 2000-2002) so buying stocks that don’t perform well worked pretty good. Untill most such stocks happened to fail in the same year, at the same time.. ouch..

In conclusion I believe that one has to not only be diversified across asset classes but also across multiple strategies.

]]> By: florch http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/the-travails-of-bill-miller/#comment-155913 florch Tue, 16 Sep 2008 09:13:39 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=1276#comment-155913 Why is a fund manager obligated to invest huge influxes of new cash in equities? If he knows that people buy high and sell low, maybe there should be a mechanism to start holding some rainy day money that comes in at the frothy peaks for opportunities like this instead of blaming his investors. Why is a fund manager obligated to invest huge influxes of new cash in equities? If he knows that people buy high and sell low, maybe there should be a mechanism to start holding some rainy day money that comes in at the frothy peaks for opportunities like this instead of blaming his investors.

]]> By: theshepherd http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/the-travails-of-bill-miller/#comment-155812 theshepherd Tue, 16 Sep 2008 00:38:41 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=1276#comment-155812 would also get out of the fund. some investors stick with a losing fund or stock for to long. let us look at the examples just this year Bear, Lehman... have a stop in place. He ignored all off the information especially the negative. why be in US financials or have a large positon in them at this time. tech never did fully recover from the party in 1999. would also get out of the fund. some investors stick with a losing fund or stock for to long. let us look at the examples just this year Bear, Lehman… have a stop in place. He ignored all off the information especially the negative.
why be in US financials or have a large positon in them at this time. tech never did fully recover from the party in 1999.

]]> By: Nurseb911 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/the-travails-of-bill-miller/#comment-155810 Nurseb911 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 23:57:30 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=1276#comment-155810 I think there are a number of useful tidbits in that recent report as I've read it a number of times. For all the attention both Miller & Buffett receive I like to focus often on their infrequent failures rather than their more well known successes. Often they give a young value investor insight beyond their years and this helps you to remember in tough times what to avoid in the hopes of not falling into the same trap. I think there are a number of useful tidbits in that recent report as I’ve read it a number of times. For all the attention both Miller & Buffett receive I like to focus often on their infrequent failures rather than their more well known successes. Often they give a young value investor insight beyond their years and this helps you to remember in tough times what to avoid in the hopes of not falling into the same trap.

]]> By: Canadian Capitalist http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/the-travails-of-bill-miller/#comment-155804 Canadian Capitalist Mon, 15 Sep 2008 21:31:34 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=1276#comment-155804 Rat: Fair enough. Concentrated bets in some financials rather than slight over exposure to that sector, sounds like a better explanation of Bill Miller's significant under performance. BAM: Yes, Bill Miller did double down on Freddie Mac (and possibly other stocks). He has done it in the past, unfortunately for him, it didn't work out this time around. Jon: I have no idea if Bill Miller would outperform in the future but many investors in his fund are simply chasing performance. Rat: Fair enough. Concentrated bets in some financials rather than slight over exposure to that sector, sounds like a better explanation of Bill Miller’s significant under performance.

BAM: Yes, Bill Miller did double down on Freddie Mac (and possibly other stocks). He has done it in the past, unfortunately for him, it didn’t work out this time around.

Jon: I have no idea if Bill Miller would outperform in the future but many investors in his fund are simply chasing performance.

]]> By: The Rat http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/the-travails-of-bill-miller/#comment-155751 The Rat Mon, 15 Sep 2008 19:16:26 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=1276#comment-155751 True, but 4.2% of holdings in JP Morgan and 3.7% in Citigroup alone could play a factor. Perhaps if there was more diversification within the sector, it could have been spread out a bit. Over the past 1.5 years, JPM has been on a steady decline and is not hovering at 2003 price levels. Significant exposure to IT could have played a factor too. I understand what you mean about three years however - 36 months ago, these stocks weren't battered as they have been over the past 12-14 months, which is true. With ~8% of the fund attributed to these two companies, it definitely has an impact. True, but 4.2% of holdings in JP Morgan and 3.7% in Citigroup alone could play a factor. Perhaps if there was more diversification within the sector, it could have been spread out a bit. Over the past 1.5 years, JPM has been on a steady decline and is not hovering at 2003 price levels. Significant exposure to IT could have played a factor too. I understand what you mean about three years however – 36 months ago, these stocks weren’t battered as they have been over the past 12-14 months, which is true. With ~8% of the fund attributed to these two companies, it definitely has an impact.

]]> By: Jon Kepler http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/the-travails-of-bill-miller/#comment-155749 Jon Kepler Mon, 15 Sep 2008 19:15:37 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=1276#comment-155749 Regardless of what people should do, if Bill Miller makes it through this, everyone will come flying back later. It's human nature to wait until people are successful without you before jumping in with them (basically, what he said). Regardless of what people should do, if Bill Miller makes it through this, everyone will come flying back later. It’s human nature to wait until people are successful without you before jumping in with them (basically, what he said).

]]> By: Blogging About Money http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/the-travails-of-bill-miller/#comment-155746 Blogging About Money Mon, 15 Sep 2008 16:05:20 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=1276#comment-155746 Well, you can add his bet on Lehman Brothers as a significant miss as well. Bill Miller's issue relates to his bets on distressed securities. He is now way behind the gun, so he is now taking bigger bets on distressed financials. I'm not sure, but I think Miller has become desperate to recover from his losses now. Problem is, he can't recover them in one year (although he will try). Well, you can add his bet on Lehman Brothers as a significant miss as well.

Bill Miller’s issue relates to his bets on distressed securities. He is now way behind the gun, so he is now taking bigger bets on distressed financials. I’m not sure, but I think Miller has become desperate to recover from his losses now. Problem is, he can’t recover them in one year (although he will try).

]]> By: Canadian Capitalist http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/the-travails-of-bill-miller/#comment-155717 Canadian Capitalist Mon, 15 Sep 2008 14:30:53 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=1276#comment-155717 NN: The news release mentioned that they are moving the proceeds to index funds and hedge funds. Rat: Maybe but the S&P 500 is 17% in financials too. That doesn't explain the significant under performance for three years. Thicken: I'm not a fan of active investing but I wouldn't count out Bill Miller. But apparently investors in his funds are -- their conviction only extended to the results of the latest quarter. NN: The news release mentioned that they are moving the proceeds to index funds and hedge funds.

Rat: Maybe but the S&P 500 is 17% in financials too. That doesn’t explain the significant under performance for three years.

Thicken: I’m not a fan of active investing but I wouldn’t count out Bill Miller. But apparently investors in his funds are — their conviction only extended to the results of the latest quarter.

]]> By: ThickenMyWallet http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/the-travails-of-bill-miller/#comment-155709 ThickenMyWallet Mon, 15 Sep 2008 14:18:00 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/?p=1276#comment-155709 Even if you are not a fan of active investing, you have to feel for the guy. He made people rich for 15 years and then they dump him when everyone else is doing poorly as well. Makes you wonder why people even bother playing with public money instead of doing a private fund. Too much grief answering to too many people. Even if you are not a fan of active investing, you have to feel for the guy. He made people rich for 15 years and then they dump him when everyone else is doing poorly as well.

Makes you wonder why people even bother playing with public money instead of doing a private fund. Too much grief answering to too many people.

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