Comments on: Good returns are more likely to follow bad returns

By: The Emerging Home Buyer’s Market

The Emerging Home Buyer’s Market — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 16:31:38 +0000

[...] Canadian Capitalist asks whether Good returns are more likely to follow bad returns. [...]

By: Free Stock Tracker and Linkstuff Feb 6 Edition

Free Stock Tracker and Linkstuff Feb 6 Edition — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 10:03:26 +0000

[...] Canadian Capitalist looks on the bright side saying that Good Returns are More Likely to Follow Bad Returns. [...]

By: A Lap Of The Blogs : WhereDoesAllMyMoneyGo.com

A Lap Of The Blogs : WhereDoesAllMyMoneyGo.com — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 03:07:07 +0000

[...] Capitalist gives us some light at the end of the tunnel: good returns are more likely to follow bad returns. Unfortunately, many people are usually one step behind – they gain confidence after the markets [...]

By: exNorteler

exNorteler — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 16:33:19 +0000

anyone downloaded Demographic Winter from bittorrent..

scares the heck out me..

By: Dividend Growth Investor

Dividend Growth Investor — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 13:43:03 +0000

I recall that Japan had only a 3% annual return per year over the past century ( can’t recall whether it was a real or nominal return however).
Japanese stock markets had another 20-30 year period where stock prices couldn’t exceed their end of wwI highs untill after WWII..
Maybe that’s why Japan invaded China in 1931 ( a little bit of history, what else do you need )

By: Canadian Capitalist

Canadian Capitalist — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 13:32:44 +0000

tyler: The Japanese experience is worrying but I wonder if it is as bad as nominal returns make it seem to be. Since, Japan has been experiencing deflation, perhaps the real returns weren’t as bad? It is worth checking out. I have requested Triumph of the Optimists from the library and it includes real return data for Japan. I’ll post what I find out.

By: Doug

Doug — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 12:43:52 +0000

What worries me about Japan is the following. The Japanese model of growth hit a wall for stock market investors in 1990. However, other Asian countries, such as China, seem to be using a similar growth model. Will other countries using the same growth model hit this wall? Does that mean one should be cautious about stock market investing in those countries? Comments, from those who know more about economics in East Asia, are most welcome.

By: Phil S

Phil S — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 23:36:38 +0000

The stock market doesn’t remember what price point that you bought your stock. How do you evaluate whether a stock is “cheap”? If you measure it according to forward earnings, then you’ll find earnings are down. If you measure it according to revenues, then you’ll find revenues are down. Just because a company USED to make X earnings doesn’t mean that it will continue to make X earnings. Ask someone who has been recently laid off auto worker whether they will earn as much this year or next as they did before they got laid off? Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet money on it.

If this is the start of a major worldwide depression, then you’ll find that any stocks you buy now will be “dead money” for a very long time. Especially if all of the protectionist rhetoric from our trading partners continue to ramp up. Canada is an export economy – we depend upon our exports for our economy. If our trading partners refuse to import our products, we’re all totally screwed regardless of what industry you’re in… OK, except for Government, civil servants will always have a job…

By: Kent

Kent — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 23:23:36 +0000

I couldn’t agree more! Historical data shows that in the 10 years following each of the last three market down turns Canadian indexes showed a rebound of approximately 16%. While most analysts are hesitant to say there will be a 16% rebound this time, most are willing to say a nine percent rebound is reasonable to expect.

By: Curt

Curt — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 23:07:51 +0000

True … but not until we hit the bottom … which maybe sometime in the future.