Comments on: Does Market Timing Work? http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/does-market-timing-work/ Helping you invest and prosper Sat, 11 Feb 2012 19:27:54 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Market Timing Works in these Research Articles http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/does-market-timing-work/#comment-211975 Market Timing Works in these Research Articles Sun, 28 Feb 2010 00:55:43 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/2007/06/21/does-market-timing-work#comment-211975 Several studies have concluded that market timing can work. The trick is translating it from studies to real world. I think most market timers really mean to say "trend following" works in most cases, and do not really mean predictive timing. Several studies have concluded that market timing can work. The trick is translating it from studies to real world. I think most market timers really mean to say “trend following” works in most cases, and do not really mean predictive timing.

]]> By: Stock Research http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/does-market-timing-work/#comment-162146 Stock Research Tue, 21 Oct 2008 02:10:21 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/2007/06/21/does-market-timing-work#comment-162146 This is a great post that injects a good amount of sanity into the question. If Buffet and Graham admit they never know/knew where the market is/was going, that says a lot. This is a great post that injects a good amount of sanity into the question. If Buffet and Graham admit they never know/knew where the market is/was going, that says a lot.

]]> By: Canadian Personal Finance Blog » Blog Archive » Free Association Friday http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/does-market-timing-work/#comment-144947 Canadian Personal Finance Blog » Blog Archive » Free Association Friday Sun, 27 Jul 2008 19:39:47 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/2007/06/21/does-market-timing-work#comment-144947 [...] Canadian Capitalist talked about Market Timing where basically if you knew when to sell stocks you’d be much richer. My opinion of the [...] [...] Canadian Capitalist talked about Market Timing where basically if you knew when to sell stocks you’d be much richer. My opinion of the [...]

]]> By: Market Timing Works http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/does-market-timing-work/#comment-73288 Market Timing Works Wed, 24 Oct 2007 01:41:47 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/2007/06/21/does-market-timing-work#comment-73288 [...] if you are lucky. I was reading some back posts by one of my favorite bloggers out there, Canadian Capitalist, on a topic that I have been thinking about a bit these days. In his post he speaks about market [...] [...] if you are lucky. I was reading some back posts by one of my favorite bloggers out there, Canadian Capitalist, on a topic that I have been thinking about a bit these days. In his post he speaks about market [...]

]]> By: Book Review: Juggling Dynamite http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/does-market-timing-work/#comment-54443 Book Review: Juggling Dynamite Tue, 10 Jul 2007 03:35:14 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/2007/06/21/does-market-timing-work#comment-54443 [...] author contends that market timing (”the buying and selling of equity holdings within the broader context of the roughly 4- to [...] [...] author contends that market timing (”the buying and selling of equity holdings within the broader context of the roughly 4- to [...]

]]> By: David http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/does-market-timing-work/#comment-50046 David Mon, 25 Jun 2007 00:25:50 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/2007/06/21/does-market-timing-work#comment-50046 "an investor who avoided the 10 worst days of the market would have posted returns of 5.9% and 59% in 2002 and 2003 compared to -24.2% and 26.4% for a buy-and-hold investor in the S&P 500." Like Ms. Park, my retroactive investments in the market have had spectacular returns, far out pacing the indexes. However, my returns are entirely imaginary, as, I expect, are Ms. Park's. As stated elsewhere, choosing to be out of the market on those 10 disparate days would be a great challenge. David “an investor who avoided the 10 worst days of the market would have posted returns of 5.9% and 59% in 2002 and 2003 compared to -24.2% and 26.4% for a buy-and-hold investor in the S&P 500.”

Like Ms. Park, my retroactive investments in the market have had spectacular returns, far out pacing the indexes. However, my returns are entirely imaginary, as, I expect, are Ms. Park’s.

As stated elsewhere, choosing to be out of the market on those 10 disparate days would be a great challenge.

David

]]> By: Sol Veritas http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/does-market-timing-work/#comment-49128 Sol Veritas Fri, 22 Jun 2007 05:52:31 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/2007/06/21/does-market-timing-work#comment-49128 Phil S: "When I purchase an investment, I consider their P/E ratio, their dividend yield, their past track record and of course the industry that they’re in." Hey folks, what ratios and triggers do you guys use for these numbers? Phil S: “When I purchase an investment, I consider their P/E ratio, their dividend yield, their past track record and of course the industry that they’re in.”

Hey folks, what ratios and triggers do you guys use for these numbers?

]]> By: FinancialJungle http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/does-market-timing-work/#comment-48933 FinancialJungle Thu, 21 Jun 2007 16:40:46 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/2007/06/21/does-market-timing-work#comment-48933 How does one define market timing? Technical analysis? Value investing? To me, TA is clearly market timing, but value investing isn't. A technical analyst attempts to time the peaks and valleys of the market with no regards to the intrinsic value of the stocks. Remember that market price doesn’t equate the intrinsic value. A value investor buys and sells based on fundamentals and valuations, with no regards to market’s peaks and valleys. For example, a value investor will take a pass on an over-valued stock even though the momentum is pointing upward. The value investor will buy a stock when market price How does one define market timing? Technical analysis? Value investing? To me, TA is clearly market timing, but value investing isn’t.

A technical analyst attempts to time the peaks and valleys of the market with no regards to the intrinsic value of the stocks. Remember that market price doesn’t equate the intrinsic value. A value investor buys and sells based on fundamentals and valuations, with no regards to market’s peaks and valleys. For example, a value investor will take a pass on an over-valued stock even though the momentum is pointing upward. The value investor will buy a stock when market price

]]> By: Growth in Value http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/does-market-timing-work/#comment-48928 Growth in Value Thu, 21 Jun 2007 16:24:10 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/2007/06/21/does-market-timing-work#comment-48928 To me this is a question of semantics. If you know when the market is about to take a serious turn and can trade accordingly, then market timing is great. But most people can't actully do that. They just think they can. They point to one lucky instance of buying at the bottom or selling at the top to justify their skill. I've done it once myself by accident (Nortel) and I'm not attributing it to anything but dumb luck. So in short, market timing is a great strategy if you can actually time the market. I just don't think anybody can on a large scale over a long time frame. To me this is a question of semantics.

If you know when the market is about to take a serious turn and can trade accordingly, then market timing is great. But most people can’t actully do that. They just think they can. They point to one lucky instance of buying at the bottom or selling at the top to justify their skill. I’ve done it once myself by accident (Nortel) and I’m not attributing it to anything but dumb luck.

So in short, market timing is a great strategy if you can actually time the market. I just don’t think anybody can on a large scale over a long time frame.

]]> By: Big Cajun Man http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/does-market-timing-work/#comment-48924 Big Cajun Man Thu, 21 Jun 2007 16:16:27 +0000 http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/2007/06/21/does-market-timing-work#comment-48924 Funnily this book is nowhere to be seen in the Ottawa Public Library? That is silly! Yes, if I had a time machine I'd be the best investor in the world, where is Sherman and Mr. Peabody when you need them. --C8j Funnily this book is nowhere to be seen in the Ottawa Public Library? That is silly!

Yes, if I had a time machine I’d be the best investor in the world, where is Sherman and Mr. Peabody when you need them.

–C8j

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