Goldman Sachs’ BRIC Research Report

January 12, 2005


I finally managed to find the Goldman Sachs research paper titled Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050. The report concludes that the BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China together would be larger than G6 (G7 excluding Canada) in USD in less than 40 years.

I found it really interesting that incremental demand of the BRICs could be larger than that of G6 as early as 2009. This conclusion shouldn’t be surprising as the effect of China’s voracious demand on commodity prices is already apparent.

The forecast has implications for investing (keeping in mind that long-range forecasting is a risky business):

  1. Significant direct exposure to emerging markets (through index funds like the iShares Emerging Markets).
  2. Exposure to companies selling energy, materials and commodities to emerging markets.
  3. Some of the increasing spending by BRICs is likely to be captured by multi-national companies (more people consuming Coke, Pepsi and Gillette).

Bug Me Not!

January 10, 2005


It is annoying to click on links to websites only to find that many of them require a free registration, which involves giving out a lot of personal information including name, email address etc. BugMeNot.com provides a neat way to bypass annoying compulsory web registration. Just type the URL of the site and it shows you logins for that site.

More New Year Resolutions and Forecasts

January 3, 2005


Yahoo has a whole page devoted to Financial New Year Resolutions. I especially liked this top ten list, which is a good idea to start doing any time of the year.
This is also the time of the year when experts make their market forecasts. SmartMoney.com provides a nice summary of forecasts here. Another summary of analyst forecasts (including the TSX) is provided by The Globe and Mail newspaper here (There’s even one forecast based on the alignment of planets!).
I regularly read Donald Luskin’s Ahead of the Curve columns on SmartMoney. His forecasts are often correct, so perhaps we will have another strong year in the markets. Also, in a recent column, he advised that readers stay away from bonds.
Ken Fisher, who writes the Portfolio Strategy column in Forbes Magazine, is another fairly accurate market forecaster. He also wrote recently about a strong year in the markets.
Here’s hoping for a bullish 2005!