Archive for April, 2011

This & That: NDP Platform, Flat Taxes and more…

April 29, 2011

12 comments
  1. With the prospect of an NDP wave sweeping the Dippers into second place, many are taking a closer look at their party platform. Larry MacDonald posted a summary of the NDP platform though to be honest, the actual platform is only a tad longer than the summary!
  2. One of the promises in the NDP document is a plan to double benefits from the Canada Pension Plan over time. Derek DeCloet wonders if it is such as good idea to have so much riding on a super-sized CPP.
  3. In its costing document, the NDP says it will partly fund its new spending through a “tax haven crackdown”. CBC’s Reality Check weighs in on how realistic this plan is.
  4. I’m a bit late in filing our taxes this year and it’s frustrating how complicated our taxes can be. Blessed by the Potato has some ideas for simplifying our tax system that doesn’t involve simply flattening it.
  5. Canadian Money Forum members discuss the implications of the NDP plan to cap interest rates charged by credit card companies.
  6. Michael James on Money put together a spreadsheet to figure out how much that cash-back mortgage is actually costing homeowners.
  7. Million Dollar Journey featured a guest post on types of stock chart patterns. Many investors are of the opinion that the entire field of technical analysis is hokum.
  8. The Blunt Bean Counter ran a guest post on the advantages of engaging a corporate executor and the circumstances where it makes sense to hire one.
  9. In a post for MoneyVille.ca, Mike Holman (aka the MoneySmarts guy) explains how to break a mortgage without paying steep penalties that could run into thousands of dollars.
  10. Is there any value to a degree received from an online “university” or “college”? Canadian Financial Stuff points us to a PBS Frontline program on the subject.
  11. Sustainable Personal Finance weighed in on where eco-minded couples can turn when shopping for wedding rings.

Garth Turner’s Dodgy Advice

April 26, 2011

67 comments

If you’ve followed Garth Turner even obliquely as I have over the years, you know that the financial advice that Mr. Turner dispenses in his columns, TV shows and his blog can often be, shall we say, a bit questionable. After all, this is the same guy who recommended buying Nortel at $40 as it was falling off a cliff. But, hey, everyone thought Nortel was going to rule to the world, so it may be a bit unfair to single out Mr. Turner for recommending it to readers.

Fast forward to 2011 and Mr. Turner has made a recent career out of forecasting an impending implosion in the Canadian housing market. He’s been at it for the past three years and for a short while in late 2008, it did seem that his prediction was coming true. Except that after a brief downturn, the housing market recovered all its losses and marched even higher. The markets can be merciless on prognosticators.

The housing market could still crash and Mr. Turner could very well turn out to be right. But I’m pretty sure that some of the financial advice that Mr. Turner dispenses on his wildly successful blog to take advantage of a real estate crash is extremely suspect. Take this recent post as an example. In it, Mr. Turner recommends that Al, a 45-year old Oakville resident with a wife and two kids living in a $425,000 paid-off home, should take out a $200,000 loan secured by the property and invest it in a balanced portfolio (40% fixed income, 60% stocks). Mr. Turner estimates that Al will be borrowing at 3% and “making 8% or so”, which implies spending $300 per month on interest on the loan and earning $1,000 in the form of “capital gains and dividends”. Mr. Turner says:

This is called diversification. It mitigates against having the bulk of your net worth in one asset alone. It lets the government pay for a big chunk of your borrowing. It takes non-performing real estate equity and turns it into income-producing capital. It takes advantage of generationally-low interest rates to create your own carry trade. It builds up the critically-important non-registered side of your investment portfolio, since RRSPs are destined to become tax bombs.

This advice is so bad that I don’t even know where to begin. First, an 8% expected return from a balanced portfolio is not very likely at a time bonds are yielding 3%. Second, it doesn’t make much sense for anyone to borrow short at 3% and lend long at 3%. Third, holding bonds in taxable accounts is terrible when Al also has $200,000 is his RRSP account. Fourth, home equity is not “non-performing” when the owner is living in it (and not paying for the privilege). Fifth, borrowing against a free-and-clear property is not “diversification”; it is leverage.

Last but not least, Al will be in big trouble should housing markets crash, a drum that Mr. Turner is fond of beating relentlessly. His home value will drop, his leveraged portfolio will likely take a large hit and with a shaky economy, he may also be facing a bleak job situation. Meanwhile, he is still servicing the loan and income from the portfolio may not cover his interest expenses entirely. As if Al isn’t in enough trouble already, if we are facing the financial Armageddon that Mr. Turner has been predicting, Al’s bank may be in trouble and may want that loan back. Al’s situation could turn out to be similar to that of an investor with a large position in Nortel who borrowed against his holdings and invested the proceeds in US stocks back in the early 2000s. Today, the Nortel holdings are worth zero, the US stock holdings have lost money and the investor would have been paying interest on his loan for 10 years with only losses to show for it.

Updates: Garth Turner responds by saying that “8% return is no stretch” when his portfolio made 15% last year. It’s hard to argue with such sound logic.

Nick Rowe of the Worthwhile Canadian Initiative blog explains why Garth’s suggestion is not diversification. Check out this comment in the post for the heavy duty math on why leveraging doesn’t reduce risk (as measured by variance).

Election 2011: Comparing Party Financial Platforms

April 25, 2011

15 comments

KPMG has put together a handy table comparing the platforms of all the major political parties on the topic of corporate taxes, personal taxes, child and family care, education, environmental measures and sales taxes. The Conservatives are saying they will continue with the current plan of cutting corporate taxes to 15% by next year. The Liberals are proposing to cancel the planned corporate tax cuts for 2011 and 2012 and keep it at the 2010 rate of 18%. The NDP is proposing to increase corporate taxes to 19.5%, which according to their platform will provide the bulk of the funding for their spending initiatives.

In addition to the initiatives in Budget 2011, the Conservatives are proposing a slew of personal tax initiatives when the budget is balanced. That would include a doubling of the Tax-Free Savings Account annual contribution limit, income-splitting for families, a doubling in the Children’s Fitness Tax Credit and a new Adult Fitness Tax Credit. The Liberals are proposing a voluntary defined contribution plan within the CPP and the Dippers are promising an increase in CPP benefits with a stated goal of doubling the amount but the plan is light on details.

The KPMG article boils down the platforms into a few pages nicely but if you are so inclined here are the links to the entire platforms of the national parties: Conservatives, Liberals, NDP and the Greens.